I finally have some basic statistics for FY 2014 (October 1, 2013 to September 30, 2014).  As before, the “cases” in the table below are appeals and petitions decided by the Third Circuit, with every unique docket number being treated as a case.  To enlarge the table, just click on it.

Compared to FY 2013, see here, statistics for FY 2014 show fewer cases (1,425 versus 1,718 in FY 2013) but generally about the same amount of time between docketing and disposition (e.g., the median for all cases in FY 2014 was 9.83 months, exactly the same as in FY 2013).  The percent of cases affirmed, dismissed or denied goes from a low of 72.22% (for bankruptcy appeals) to a high of 100% (for petitions for a writ of mandamus or prohibition).  This is a wider range than was found for FY 2013.

Switching from the employment-case scenario of my last post, now let’s say you just learned that the district court judge granted the opposing party’s motion for summary judgment in a breach-of-contract case. As before, you’re still within the period you have to file a notice of appeal. My data has 84 contract-case appeals the Third Circuit decided in FY 2013.

A bit of background on those 84 cases: About a third of them involved insurance policies. In about 30% of the 84 cases, the claims were dismissed, usually under Rule 12. In another 39%, the district court granted summary judgment. Judgment was entered after a bench or jury trial in another 12%. These percentages don’t add up to 100 – other cases came to the Third Circuit after decisions on injunctions, Rule 60 motions, as well as other motions. Some other statistics:

Time to disposition:    First quartile – 9.12 months
Median – 11.57 months
Third quartile – 14.73 months

Percent affirmed or dismissed:                      78.57%.

Time to disposition is about what it is for “other civil cases” generally, and the percentage affirmed or dismissed is slightly smaller. See FY 2013 statistics here. The percentage affirmed or dismissed is a good deal smaller than the comparable percentage for my sample of employment cases, though contract-case appeals also appear to take longer. See here.

A quick way to get an idea of whether it makes sense to appeal from the district court’s summary judgment decision in the contract case is to apply the above percentage to what’s on the table. If, for example, $100,000 is at stake – this is what you’ll get (or get to keep) if you win the appeal – then an estimate of the “expected benefit” of the appeal is $21,430. From that, you’ll have to subtract attorney fees and other costs associated with the appeal that you will have to pay.

Why only $21,430? If 78.57% of decisions in contract cases are affirmed or dismissed, then 21.43% (100-78.57) can be taken as an estimate of the chance that there will be some meaningful change to the district court’s decision – either it’s reversed or vacated in whole, or reversed or vacated in part. If you lose the appeal, you’ll be out attorney fees and other costs you have to pay and you will gain nothing (you will still be faced with the adverse district court decision and what that means for what you’ll have to pay or do without). If you are looking at fees and costs likely totaling more than $21,430, then you’ll have a negative expected value of the appeal. Generally, this means you should not appeal.

Now, if there’s $1M at stake, the expected benefit would be $214,300, and, unless your attorney’s fees and other costs are more than that, you’ll be looking at a positive expected value of the appeal.

This expected value example is a simple one; it does not include all the factors that you should consider when deciding whether or not to appeal. But it may give you a good – and objective – starting point.

How can you use statistics like the ones published on this site to help you decide whether to appeal a court judgment? Let’s say you just learned that the district court judge granted the opposing party’s motion for summary judgment in the Title VII case in which you’re a party, and you’re still within the period you’re allowed to file a notice of appeal. Statistics can give you some idea of what might happen once your case is on review (hence the name of this site, by the way – Once Upon Review). The statistics I’m going to address here are:

For Civil Rights – Employment cases (N=92):

Time to disposition: First quartile – 6.99 months
Median – 9.55 months
Third quartile – 11.91 months

Percent affirmed or dismissed 91.30%

In FY 2013, the Third Circuit decided 92 cases brought under employment-related statutes (e.g., Title VII, the ADA, the ADEA). I’m not including in this discussion cases brought under Section 1983 that allege some constitutional violation in the context of an employment relationship (e.g., retaliation for exercising First Amendment rights).

Of the 92 cases, 57 ended with a decision on a summary judgment motion (about 62%). Another 19% ended with a dismissal, usually on a Rule 12(b)(6) motion. Eight cases were brought to the Third Circuit after a jury or bench trial. Yes, I’m going by the data that I collected here – the Administrative Office’s published information doesn’t include such details.

By the time of the Third Circuit’s decision, those 92 cases had been on the appellate court’s docket from 65 days (minimum) to 1,196 days (maximum). The median time between docketing and disposition was 290.5 days, or 9.55 months. So, 50% of the 92 cases were decided in about 9½ months. Other statistics show that 25% of the cases were decided in about 7 months and 75% of the cases were decided in just under a year (362.25 days or 11.91 months). So, one way of looking at the statistics above is that they suggest that if you do appeal, you can expect that you’ll have to wait 9½ to 12 months to get a decision on the merits of your employment case. Obviously, a lot of things can happen to bring your specific case either under or over that range, but that range is a probably a good starting estimate.

Now, what you’re probably most interested in is your chances of success on appeal. Taking things from a general perspective – without delving into the specific facts of your case – one indicator of your chances of success is how often the Third Circuit affirms the district court decision. From an appellant’s perspective this is usually a complete loss, and conversely, from an appellee’s perspective, it is a complete win.

In FY 2013, the Third Circuit affirmed or dismissed 91.30% of the 92 cases described above.

Yes, that’s a high number. Yes, that’s a quite a bit higher than the 81% percent listed in my prior post for “other civil cases” – the category that includes the 92 employment cases. And finally, yes, that number means that you could wait a year only for the Third Circuit to tell you that you lose.

What the percent affirmed number doesn’t tell you is whether your specific case is like the cases in which the Third Circuit affirmed or whether it is more like the cases in which the Third Circuit reversed, reversed in part, vacated, or vacated in part the district court’s judgment (the remaining 8.7%). If someone is advising you to appeal, however, a good question to ask that person is how your case is more like the cases in the 8.7%.